Conceptual illustration of a post-Islamic Republic Iran, showing Tehran alongside institutional blueprints, constitutional frameworks and transition planning concepts featured in The Successor Problem investigation by IranSTO.

The Successor Problem: Why Nobody Is Preparing for a Post-Islamic Republic Iran

Introduction: For more than four decades, the Islamic Republic has occupied a central position in international policy discussions. Governments negotiate with it. Intelligence agencies monitor it. Sanctions target it. Human rights organisations document its abuses. Think tanks analyse its behaviour. Universities study its political structure. Journalists report on its crises. Entire professional ecosystems have emerged

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Ataollah Mohajerani featured in an IranSTO investigation examining his transition from Islamic Republic insider to British public intellectual and his role in legitimacy networks surrounding Iran.

Ataollah Mohajerani: From Islamic Republic Insider to British Public Intellectual

How Political Authority Built Inside the Islamic Republic Acquired a Second Life in Britain   Introduction: The Narrative Problem The survival of authoritarian systems is often explained through the language of force. Observers point to security services, prisons, intelligence agencies, censorship mechanisms and political repression. These instruments matter. The Islamic Republic has relied upon all

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Donald Trump, Iran and the outcome test after Maximum Pressure, war, ceasefires and negotiations in 2026

Donald Trump, Iran, and the Outcome Test Why the Islamic Republic Still Survives

Introduction Trump’s Iran Policy. Donald Trump built his political case on a simple accusation: America’s Iran policy had failed. Barack Obama had failed. Joe Biden had failed. Diplomacy had failed. Negotiations had failed. Accommodation had failed. Again and again, Trump presented himself as the alternative. He promised strength where others had shown weakness. Pressure where

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Who Benefits From Keeping the Islamic Republic Alive? Global question mark showing diplomacy, sanctions, security and human rights institutions linked to regime survival

Who Benefits From Keeping the Islamic Republic Alive? The International Incentive Structure Behind Regime Survival

Introduction   Who benefits from keeping the Islamic Republic alive? For decades, discussions about the Islamic Republic have revolved around a familiar question: Why does the regime survive? The answers usually focus on internal factors. Repression. Ideology. Security institutions. Patronage networks. Control of information. Economic coercion. Political fragmentation among opponents. Each explanation contains an element

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Political editorial graphic showing Washington, Iran, oil markets, the Strait of Hormuz, election pressure, inflation, and a leader facing strategic crisis.

Washington’s Iran Deal Panic: When Domestic Politics Replaces Strategy

Introduction Diplomacy or Damage Control?   Washington’s Iran Deal strategy is increasingly being presented as diplomacy. Yet behind the language of negotiation lies a growing effort to manage political risk rather than achieve strategic transformation. For months, political leaders, commentators and policy institutions across the West have framed negotiations with Tehran as a necessary mechanism

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Architecture of impunity in Iran showing Evin Prison, UN headquarters and repression scene

The Architecture of Impunity: How UN Human Rights Procedure and Criminal Inaction Shield Atrocity in Iran

Executive Summary   The Architecture of Impunity: How UN Human Rights Procedure and Criminal Inaction Shield Atrocity in Iran   This paper examines a structural accountability failure: the conversion of documented atrocity into an administratively manageable diplomatic process. Over the past two decades, United Nations human rights mechanisms have built a dense record on Iran—resolutions,

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Illustration representing the transnational legitimacy of the Islamic Republic, showing diaspora mediation, Western institutional engagement, media amplification, and transnational repression dynamics.

Transnational Legitimacy: Diaspora Mediation and Western Institutional Enablement of the Islamic Republic

Introduction Diaspora as Political Arena, Not Moral Category   The transnational legitimacy of the Islamic Republic is not produced solely within Iran’s borders. It is mediated, amplified, and circulated through external institutional ecosystems that shape perception and dilute accountability. The term “diaspora” is often treated as a cultural or demographic descriptor. It implies displacement, memory,

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Illustration depicting the reformist illusion in Iran, showing political figures, protest repression, and the concept of moderation shielding systemic state violence.

The Reformist Illusion: How Moderation Became a Shield for Mass Killing in Iran

Introduction — The Lie That Bought the Regime Time   For more than two decades, one word delayed accountability in Iran: reform. The reformist illusion in Iran has long been presented as a pathway to gradual change. This article examines how the myth of moderation stabilised the Islamic Republic’s coercive structure and ultimately enabled mass

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Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) emblem over a shadowed battlefield backdrop with text highlighting Europe’s terror designation and systemic repression.

The IRGC Is Not a Military Force, It Is a Terror Infrastructure

How the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Became the Engine of Organised Repression and Transnational Terror   Introduction — When a Military Becomes the Engine of a Regime The IRGC terror organisation Europe designation is not merely a diplomatic decision; it is a long-delayed recognition of a structure that functions as the primary engine of repression

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Mojtaba Khamenei in shadow with property empire, sanctions symbols and protest violence imagery in the background

Mojtaba Khamenei: The Shadow Heir and the Architecture of Hidden Power

How an Unelected Figure Built Wealth, Influence, and Succession Without Accountability   Introduction — The Invisible Centre of Power   There are two types of power in authoritarian systems. The first is visible. It has a title, an office, and a formal mandate. It appears in constitutions, decrees and state television broadcasts. The second is

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