Paul Smith

Vahid Haghanian and the executive architecture of the Office of the Supreme Leader

The Invisible Executive: Vahid Haghanian and the Executive Architecture of the Office of the Supreme Leader

Introduction Vahid Haghanian’s role within the executive architecture of the Office of the Supreme Leader cannot be understood through biography alone. His significance lies not in the offices he formally occupied, but in the executive functions he performed inside one of the Islamic Republic’s most opaque institutions. Every political system relies upon an institutional mechanism […]

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Ali Asghar Hejazi and the hidden security architecture of the Office of the Supreme Leader

The Security Gatekeeper: Ali Asghar Hejazi and the Hidden Security Architecture of the Office of the Supreme Leader

Introduction   The Security Architecture of the Office of the Supreme Leader has received remarkably little scholarly attention despite occupying one of the most strategically important positions within the political system of the Islamic Republic. Political systems are usually analysed through the people who stand in front of them. Presidents deliver speeches, ministers announce policy,

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Mohammad Mohammadi Golpayegani and the Office of the Supreme Leader in IranSTO Regime Atlas

The Administrative Gatekeeper: Mohammad Mohammadi Golpayegani and the Administrative Architecture of the Office of the Supreme Leader

Introduction Power is commonly understood through those who exercise it in public. Presidents deliver speeches, ministers announce policy, military commanders appear before the media and heads of state dominate political headlines. They become the recognised face of government, shaping both domestic narratives and international perceptions. Yet the visible exercise of authority should not be confused

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The Transition Veto concept illustrating Iran political transition blocked by international policy, featuring a veto-stamped transition dossier and a fractured map of Iran.

The Transition Veto

How Foreign Governments Keep Iran’s Political Future in Permanent Suspension   Introduction The Transition Veto describes a recurring pattern in international policy towards Iran. If January 2026 did not fundamentally change the way foreign governments approached the Islamic Republic, it is reasonable to ask what possibly could. That question lies at the heart of this

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Dark institutional boardroom facing a frosted glass gate with a map of Iran and blurred Iranian silhouettes behind it. Iranian diaspora gatekeepers

The Exile Gatekeepers: Who Decides Which Iranian Voices Reach the World?

The Exile Gatekeepers Who Decides Which Iranian Voices Reach the World? Iranian diaspora gatekeepers do not usually describe themselves as political gatekeepers. When Western governments, universities, think tanks, media organisations and advocacy institutions seek an Iranian voice, the choice is usually presented as a professional decision: an editor needs an analyst, a parliamentary office needs

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Abstract map of Iran surrounded by a network of policy, media and donor connections, illustrating the permanent crisis industry around Iran’s unresolved transition

The Permanent Crisis Industry

How Iran’s Unresolved Transition Became a Political Economy   Introduction The Transition That Never Arrives Iran’s unresolved transition has become one of the defining political conditions in the debate over the country’s future. For years, Iran has been described as standing on the edge of decisive change. Every major protest movement, mass killing, economic collapse,

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Conceptual illustration of Reza Pahlavi in silhouette against a faded map of Iran, surrounded by a network labelled legitimacy, authority, recognition, representation and transition.

The Prince Problem

Why Legitimacy Becomes Controversial When Alternatives Are Named   Introduction The Moment Transition Becomes Personal Reza Pahlavi legitimacy has become one of the most disputed subjects in discussions about Iran’s future. This is not because Iranians agree on him. It is because they do not. Few political figures generate comparable levels of support, opposition, scrutiny

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Conceptual illustration of a post-Islamic Republic Iran, showing Tehran alongside institutional blueprints, constitutional frameworks and transition planning concepts featured in The Successor Problem investigation by IranSTO.

The Successor Problem: Why Nobody Is Preparing for a Post-Islamic Republic Iran

Introduction: For more than four decades, the Islamic Republic has occupied a central position in international policy discussions. Governments negotiate with it. Intelligence agencies monitor it. Sanctions target it. Human rights organisations document its abuses. Think tanks analyse its behaviour. Universities study its political structure. Journalists report on its crises. Entire professional ecosystems have emerged

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Ataollah Mohajerani featured in an IranSTO investigation examining his transition from Islamic Republic insider to British public intellectual and his role in legitimacy networks surrounding Iran.

Ataollah Mohajerani: From Islamic Republic Insider to British Public Intellectual

How Political Authority Built Inside the Islamic Republic Acquired a Second Life in Britain   Introduction: The Narrative Problem The survival of authoritarian systems is often explained through the language of force. Observers point to security services, prisons, intelligence agencies, censorship mechanisms and political repression. These instruments matter. The Islamic Republic has relied upon all

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Donald Trump, Iran and the outcome test after Maximum Pressure, war, ceasefires and negotiations in 2026

Donald Trump, Iran, and the Outcome Test Why the Islamic Republic Still Survives

Introduction Trump’s Iran Policy. Donald Trump built his political case on a simple accusation: America’s Iran policy had failed. Barack Obama had failed. Joe Biden had failed. Diplomacy had failed. Negotiations had failed. Accommodation had failed. Again and again, Trump presented himself as the alternative. He promised strength where others had shown weakness. Pressure where

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